Seasonal Analysis Work Bench
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WARNING
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This is experimental software, still in a state of development, released solely in order to obtain comments on its design and facilities. There is no guarantee that the program will work correctly, or at all. Any use of this program is solely at the user's own risk; the author accepts no responsibility for any consequences of the use or attempted use of the software.

Requirements
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The SAWB operates only with Microsoft Windows. It has been developed on Windows XP and tested also on Windows 95. RAM usage depends on the number of analyses in the current dataset, but is unlikely to exceed 20MB. Disk storage for the program and associated files is about 2.5MB.

If new X-12 runs are to be carried out, rather than simply analysing existing runs, a version of X-12-Arima must be available on the machine; its location must be specified to the program using the 'Locate X12 program' option on the 'View' menu. Note that this must be a recent version of the program, which accepts 'long' file names in the spec file.

Installing the SAWB
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The SAWB has been programmed in Dolphin Smalltalk, and some of the items needed to install it are elements of the Dolphin system. The following four files are distributed, and should be copied into a convenient directory:

	SAWB.exe		The main executable program
	SAWB.ini		An initialization file which stores user preferences
	DolphinDR005.dll	A Dolphin resource file
	SAWB.exe.manifest	Needed to ensure the program ‘looks right’ on XP

The .ini file will be updated by the program as it closes down, and read again on start-up. No other files need to be changed, and no other installation is needed except to provide a shortcut to the main executable if desired.

The distribution also includes a minimal dataset, based on the Box and Jenkins Airline Passengers data distributed by the Census Bureau with X-12-ARIMA. If this set is to be used for familiarisation, all the files in this set should be copied to the directory c:\x12a\BJAir.

Note: The BJAir dataset may be used in either of two ways:

	a. Open as a predefined dataset - select 'Open dataset' from the 'File' menu, browse 	to the BJAir directory, select the file 'SAWBdemo.stb'.

	b. Group import the series - select 'Group Import' from the 'File' menu, browse to 		the BJAir directory, select this directory for both .out files and .gmt files.

In case a., it will be found that both models have been assigned names and the second one has been marked as preferred, while case b. has the default naming situation.

Use for new analyses
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Before carrying out new analyses, you have to tell the program where to find your version of the X-12-Arima program. To do so, start the program and select 'Locate X-12 program' on the 'View' menu. Browse to the required X-12 program and select 'Open'. This needs to be done only once, before the first use for analysis, unless the location changes; it is automatically remembered in the SAWB.ini file between sessions.

The easiest way to analyse new datasets is to prepare a spec file for each series (in the case of an annual review, this should be the spec for the previous definition), and then, on the 'File' menu of the program, select 'Run spec file' and then browse to the location of the spec. Highlight the required spec and click 'Open'; the spec will automatically be run, and any warning or error messages from X-12 will appear in a separate window. The results of the analysis will appear in summary form in the 'Model Summary' tab of the display, and the full printout in the 'Output file' tab (right click and select 'Navigate' to go direct to individual output tables). To see graphical output, go to the 'Graphs' tab, right click and select the desired display.

To run variants of the original spec, go to the 'Spec file' tab, edit the spec as required, right click and select 'Accept changes'. If you wish to create a new variant to be compared with the previous one, select the 'Create new model' option; if you are merely making a minor change such as adding a sliding spans analysis without changing the spec, select the 'Overwrite this model' option.

Note that, as new models are created, they appear in a list in the top right corner of the display. If several models have been tried, you may indicate which one seems the best by right clicking its entry in the Models list and selecting 'Make preferred'. The choice of preferred model is shown by the green icon, and the green panel in the 'Model Summary' tab. If new information makes you change your mind about which is the preferred model, simply select the new choice and make it preferred, which will remove the indication from the former choice.

As new series are included, their titles will appear in the top left pane (in the order in which they are analysed). When several related series have been dealt with, their details may be saved as a dataset for use in a new session. To do this, select 'Save database' on the file menu, and then when requested supply a title for the dataset (for use in displays) and a file name (the system automatically supplies the extension .stb -for 'Smalltalk binary' - so do not insert this). If you close a session without saving the dataset, a window will pop up asking if you want to exit without saving. To restart with a saved dataset on display, start the program and select 'Open dataset' on the file menu, then browse to the saved .stb file and select 'Open'.


Copyright
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This program is copyright P B Kenny 2004. It may be re-distributed for evaluation purposes only, provided it is distributed in the complete form in which it is received, including this copyright notice.

This evaluation software is time-limited, and will cease to function after 31 December 2007. (This is simply to prevent obsolete versions continuing in use; a further developed version will be available by this expiry date.)

Comments please
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Users are requested to send any comments, favourable or unfavourable, to the author at pkenny@globalnet.co.uk. Comments are requested particularly on the following:

a. Does the software in its present state fulfil any useful functions for you?
b. What additional functions would be needed to provide what you want?
c. Are any existing functions redundant for the use you make of the program?
d. Do any of the existing functions work in a way that you find counter-intuitive or difficult to operate?
e. What improvements would make the program more useful or convenient for you?

In considering b. above, please bear in mind the comments in the associated documentation about facilities which are already planned for inclusion.

Of course, any other comments on the program would be welcome.

P B Kenny

September 2004.

Updated PBK May 2005
